EUR/CHF’s rise from 0.9416 continued last week and hit as high as 0.9648 despite interim retreat. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 0.9691 key structural resistance next. Firm break there will argue that whole decline from 1.0095 has completed at 0.9416, just ahead of 0.9407 support (2022 low). Further rally would be seen to 0.9840 resistance next. For now, break of 0.9564 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0095 resistance holds, price actions from 0.9407 are viewed as a three-wave consolidation pattern first. Current rise from 0.9416 might be the third leg. That is, larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) might still resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 will argue that the long term down trend is reversing.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0362). Break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.
. Further rally would be seen to 0.9840 resistance next. For now, break of 0.9564 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.){kind=link}