- British pound posts sharp gains
- BoE and Fed pause for second straight time
The British pound has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2216, up 0.54%.
Bank of England pauses
The Bank of England voted to maintain interest rates at 5.25% at today’s meeting. The pauses follow 14 straight rate increases in the current tightening cycle which began in December 2021. The move indicates that the MPC is sticking to the “Table Mountain” approach, which is essentially a “higher for longer” stance that keeps rates at elevated levels until the BoE is confident that inflation will fall back to the 2% target.
The MPC vote was 6-3, with the majority favoring a pause and three members voting to hike rates by a quarter-point. At the September meeting, the vote to pause was 5-4. The division within the MPC indicates that members remain divided over policy, which will make it difficult for Governor Bailey to present a clear path moving forward.
The BoE revised inflation projections slightly higher and the statement noted that the BoE stood ready to raise rates if it sees “more persistent inflationary pressures”. The markets are hoping that the back-to-back pauses mark the end of the current rate-tightening cycle, but rate cuts aren’t expected until late in 2024. Governor Bailey said after the meeting that higher interest rates had pushed inflation lower but it was “much too early to be thinking about rate cuts.”
US dollar dips after Fed pause
The Federal Reserve held rates for a second straight time on Wednesday. The Fed reiterated that rate hikes remained on the table, but acknowledged that “tighter financial and credit conditions” were weighing on inflation. This was likely a reference to the recent rise in US Treasuries, which has increased borrowing costs and could push inflation lower without the Fed having to raise rates.
If Powell was trying to sound hawkish, the markets weren’t buying it. Future markets have priced in another pause in December and expectations are that the Fed is done with hiking, despite Powell’s assertion to the contrary. The US dollar is down against all of the majors and US stock markets were strongly higher on Wednesday.
GBP/USD Technical
- GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2175. Above, there is resistance at 1.2251
- There is support at 1.2068 and 1.2032
