The euro is unchanged in the Tuesday session, after starting the week with losses. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1760, up 0.09% on the day. On the release front, German and European Manufacturing PMIs were sharp. German Flash Manufacturing PMI ticked lower to 60.5, beating the estimate of 60.1 points. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 58.6, easily beating the estimate of 57.9 points. There are no major US events on the schedule. On Wednesday, Germany releases Ifo Business Climate, and the US will publish US Core Durable Goods Orders.
The crisis in Catalonia has entered its third week, and with the central and Catalan governments entrenched in their positions, the worst may be yet to come. On Saturday, the central government said it would imposing direct rule, invoking Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution. However, there is plenty of uncertainty, as this clause has never been used. Madrid has said it will remove Catalan President Carles Puigemont from power, take over the media and hold new elections for the region. Unsurprisingly, the Catalan government has condemned this latest salvo and has called for “massive civil disobdience”. Developments are unfolding daily, and investors are nervously watching the trouble in Spain, the eurozone’s fourth largest economy. The European Union has refused to intervene, calling the crisis an internal matter. So far, the woes in Catalonia have not affected the euro.
The eurozone economy has been performing well, with much of the credit going to a robust manufacturing sector in Germany and the eurozone. This was underscored on Tuesday, as manufacturing PMIs were strong and continue to point to expansion. The manufacturing sector remains solid, as global demand for European exports remains strong and consumer spending has been steady. German and European Services PMIs both missed their estimates, but still indicated expansion in the services sector.
The Brexit clock is ticking, with Britain leaving the European Union in March 2019. However, negotiations between the parties have foundered, as the sides remain far apart on a number of key issues, including the size of Britain’s bill when it says goodbye to the club. Prime Minister May addressed the 27 EU leaders last week in Brussels, imploring the European to show some flexibility. This didn’t prevent the EU leaders from stating that trade negotiations with Britain would not commence until more progress is made on non-trade matters. Prime Minister May has a razor-thin majority in parliament, and adding to the mix, there are sharp divisions in her cabinet regarding Brexit, with some senior ministers in favor of taking a hard stance and leaving the EU without an agreement if the Europeans fail to soften their position.
