Fed stands pat, 12 members see one more hike

Fed keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. Tightening bias is maintained as “The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals”.

In the new dot plot, 12 of 19 policymakers penciled in one more 25bps rate hike this year to 5.50-5.75%. By

In the new median projections,

• 2023 GDP growth is revised up to 2.1% (from 1.0%).
• 2024 GDP growth is revised up to 1.5% (from 1.1%).
• 2025 GDP growth is unchanged at 1.8%.

• 2023 unemployment rate is revised down to 3.8% (from 4.1%).
• 2024 unemployment rate is revised down to 4.1% (from 4.4%).
• 2025 unemployment rate is revised down to 4.1% (from 4.5%).

• 2023 PCE inflation is revised up to 2.2% (from 3.2%).
• 2024 PCE inflation is unchanged at 2.5%.
• 2025 PCE inflation is revised up to 2.2% (from 2.1%).

• 2023 core PCE is revised down to 3.7% (from 3.9%).
• 2024 core PCE is unchanged at 2.6%.
• 2025 PCE is revised up to 2.3% (from 2.2%).

• 2023 federal funds rate unchanged at 5.6%.
• 2024 federal funds rate raised to 5.1% (from 4.6%).
• 2025 federal funds rate raised to 3.9% (from 3.4%).

Full FOMC statement here.

Full Summary of Economic Projections here.