- China’s new yuan loans skyrocketed to 1.36 trillion yuan in August, much higher than the prior month’s 345 billion yuan.
- Optimism grows for China’s outlook as stimulus appears to filtering throughout the economy
- Dollar has biggest drop in two months as yen and yuan gain
The big risk aversion trade over the summer has seen AUD/JPY consolidate around the 94.00 level. A downbeat outlook for China kept the Australian dollar heavy, while US economic resilience has kept yen softer on a widening interest rate differential. The AUD/JPY daily highlights a global growth picture that is either looking for a China rebound, which should help Australia’s growth momentum or a Japan recovery that is not on solid footing.
The AUD/JPY daily displays a symmetrical triangle that shows price has converged towards the 94.00 region. The bullish trend that started in the spring ended mid-June ahead of the 97.70 level. Price is poised to either resume the longer-term bullish trend that started after the pandemic low was made in March 2020 or potentially show the start of a significant bearish reversal.
The Australian dollar and Japanese yen seems likely to remain a key risk barometer, which means it could react strongly with what happens with this week’s US inflation data and with China’s decision on rates and their activity data. If bullishness emerges, price could initially targets the 95.50 region, while downside support would come from the 200-day SMA level, which currently resides at the 92.00 level.
This week the Australian economic calendar is filled with economic data that might take a backseat to everything that happens from the US and China. The main Australian data release of the week is Australia jobs, which could show job growth rebounded, but will unlikely bring back rate hike expectations for the RBA.
