Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 7 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
• Time of formation: 9 May 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CHF – 0.9854
As the greenback has risen again after brief retreat to 0.9737 late last week, suggesting the rise from 0.9421 low is still in progress, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend further gain to 0.9900-10, however, as this move is still viewed as retracement of early decline from 1.0344, reckon upside would be limited to 0.9950-60 and 0.9991-1.0000 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0344-0.9421) should hold from here due to near term overbought condition, bring retreat later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.9800-05 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9760-70 and bring another rise later. A daily close below said support at 0.9737 would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness to 0.9700, then test of minor support at 0.9670. A drop below this level would suggest the rise from 0.9421 has ended instead, risk further fall to 0.9642 support but reckon downside would be limited to 0.9590-00 and support at 0.9565 should remain intact.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.9770 for 0.9970 with stop below 0.9670.
On the weekly chart, as the greenback has edged higher again after forming a white candlestick last week, adding credence to our near term bullishness for the rebound from 0.9421 low to bring retracement of recent entire decline from 1.0344, hence further gain to the lower Kumo (now at 0.9894), then test of the upper Kumo (now at 0.9970) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.9991-1.0000 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0344-0.9421 and psychological resistance) and price should falter well below resistance at 1.0100-08.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 0.9800-05 is likely, support at 0.9737 would contain downside and bring another rise. A weekly close below 0.9737 would defer and suggest first leg of rebound from 0.9737 has ended and bring weakness to 0.9690-00 but reckon support at 0.9642 would limit downside and price should stay above support at 0.9565 and the greenback shall stage another strong rebound later this month or next month.
