USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.3638 was deeper than expected, but it recovered strongly have hitting 1.3488. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3653 resistance should confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, and target a test on this high. Meanwhile, below 1.3488 will bring another fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3415).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.3415) holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3080) holds.
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