NZDUSD staged a nice rebound up to 0.6000 at the start of the week, but the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) proved a heavy obstacle ahead of the US jobs data, limiting gains around 0.5967.
The upside reversal in the momentum indicators is feeding optimism the bulls may stay in play in the coming sessions. Yet, traders may wisely wait for a close above the 0.6000 round level, which overlaps with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downleg, before driving the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.6085. Even higher, the 50% Fibonacci mark of 0.6150 and the 0.6175 zone, where the key trendlines from 2022 lows and highs intersect each other, could put a break on bullish forces. The 61.8% Fibonacci at 0.6200 and the 200-day SMA are also nearby.
In the event the 20-day SMA holds firm, the price may revisit the familiar support line from March at 0.5874. The 0.5843 constraining zone, which helped the price to pivot higher in October-November 2022 and April 2020, might come into consideration too. If the latter gives way, the downtrend could stretch towards the 0.5770 barrier.
Of note, the bearish SMA crosses are indicating a bear market going forward.
Summing up, there are downside risks to NZDUSD despite the latest bounce in the price. A decisive rally above 0.6000 is now needed to generate fresh bullish actions.
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