Will USDJPY Stage a New Bearish Cycle?

USDJPY topped twice around the 146.40 barrier from last November, but a negative trend reversal cannot be warranted yet.

The RSI has changed direction to the downside after peaking near its 70 overbought mark, while the MACD has slowed down in the positive area. Still, the latter has not crossed below its red signal line, while the Stochastic oscillator is poised for an upside reversal soon after retreating below its 80 overbought level, witnessing some persisting buying interest.

Sellers might wait for the price to drop below 144.90 before they initiate a new bearish cycle. Some may even wait until it falls below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 144.30, which helped the market earlier this month. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upleg is at the same location. Therefore, a clear close lower is expected to trigger a fast decline towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 143.00. If the pressure on the price continues below the 50-day EMA, it may fall somewhere between 141.50 and 140.80.

In the bullish scenario, where the pair accelerates above 146.40, it may encounter resistance within the 147.70-148.30 region, formed by the 1998 high and the tentative ascending line from March. The 148.80 region has been quite restrictive during October-November 2022. Hence, a move above that wall might be a prerequisite for an advance towards the 150.00 psychological number.

In short, USDJPY bulls are facing a double top situation after six-weeks of gains and ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. While the bearish pattern is flagging some caution, sellers may stay on the sidelines until they see a decline below the 144.90-144.30 zone.