USDCHF is worth watching in the coming sessions as its recent upswing caught up to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 0.8800 level.
Technical signals are mixed. The RSI and the MACD have moderately strengthened above their neutral levels for the first time in two months, increasing speculation that the bull run could develop higher. On the other hand, the stochastic oscillator has confirmed a lower high below its 80 overbought level, mirroring some caution among traders.
If buying interest resumes above the 50-day SMA and May’s trough of 0.8819, the bulls may face a tougher obstacle around the resistance trendline from March at 0.8865. The 38.2% Fibonacci mark of the 0.9437-0.8550 downleg is also within a breathing distance at 0.8890. A decisive close above that barricade could trigger a new bull run towards the 50% Fibonacci of 0.8990, where the price faced a challenging battle during April-July. Still, only a sustainable extension above June’s ceiling and the 200-day SMA at 0.9100 would signal a bullish trend reversal in the big picture.
Alternatively, the price may ease to seek support somewhere between the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.8760 and the 20-day SMA at 0.8733. If the 0.8670 constraining area cracks too, the downfall could worsen towards the 0.8600-0.8545 base.
Summing up, USDCHF retains its upleg from July lows, but the upcoming sessions could be somewhat burdensome as a major resistance area lays overhead.
