USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.3091 extended higher last week and it’s now pressing 1.3386 resistance. Sustained break of 1.3386 will argue that whole correction from 1.3976 has completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Further rally would then be seen to 1.3653 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3386, followed by break of 1.3260 minor support, should resume larger decline through 1.3091 low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective fall only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976 towards 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3057) holds.
