The UK 100 cash index is trading sideways today following an aggressive sell-off since the July 3 local peak. The index has actually been experiencing a series of lower highs and lower lows since April 21, 2023, religiously obeying a downward sloping trendline. It is now hovering a tad above the March 20, 2023 low, potentially the first major stock index to revisit these lows.
The current downleg enjoys the support of most momentum indicators. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is moving higher and thus pointing to a decent bearish trend in the market. However, a few cracks have been appearing. The RSI traded at its lowest level since March 16 and it is now trying to edge higher. In addition, the stochastic oscillator has moved back inside its oversold area. While it can stay there for a while, this move is usually seen as an early sell-off exhaustion signal.
Should the bears decide to continue their push lower, they would come up against the 7,205-7,217 range that is defined by the March 20, 2023 low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 13, 2022 – February 16, 2023 uptrend respectively. If successful, they could then have the chance to test the support set by the April 16, 2015 high at 7,127.
On the flip side, the bulls are desperate for a small recovery move towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 7,375. They could then set their eyes higher at the 7,533-7,548 area populated by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, a break of the busier 7,599-7,703 range is probably needed to change the current bearish market sentiment.
To sum up, the UK 100 cash index remains under bearish pressure as the bulls are trying to draw a line in the sand. A break of the March 2023 lows could lead to another significant downleg.
