CHFJPY is experiencing its fourth consecutive red-candle session after recording an all-time high of 161.64. It has been an almost exponential move from the January 13, 2023 low of 137.42 and like other JPY pairs, CHFJPY has not experienced a proper correction since the mid-March sell-off.
The momentum indicators are gradually opening the door to a sizeable pullback. The stochastic oscillator is gliding lower but remains in its overbought (OB) territory. A break below its OB area would be clearly seen as a bearish sign. Similarly, the RSI appears to have topped and it is now heading towards its 50-midpoint. More interestingly, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) seems to give the strongest rally-exhaustion signal. It is moving aggressively lower, supporting the argument that the recent bullish trend has potentially run its course for now.
Should the bearish signals multiply, the CHFJPY bears would be keen for a move towards the 50-day simple average (SMA) at 155.52, provided that they successfully overcome the March 24, 2023 upward sloping trendline. They could then set their eyes on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May 15, 2022 – June 30, 2023 uptrend at 153.58.
On the other hand, the bulls’ aim seems easier despite the fact that they continue to venture into uncharted waters. They may decide to make another all-time high, above the current high of 161.64, aiming for the 165 level.
To sum up, CHFJPY bulls remain comfortably in control of the market, but the chances of a correction are gradually increasing. Bulls could begrudgingly accept a short-term sell-off provided that it does not push CHFJPY below the March 24, 2023 upward sloping trendline.
