USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3115 but formed a short term bottom just ahead of 100% projection of 1.3976 to 1.3224 from 1.3860 at 1.3108. But subsequent recovery lost momentum after hitting 1.3284. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3284 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3384).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are still viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3299 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. However, sustained trading above 1.3229 will raise the chance that the correction has completed and turn focus back to 1.3653 resistance.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3039) holds.
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