AUDJPY has been recording an exponential move since early June, registering nine consecutive green candlesticks. This is an undeniable confirmation of the underlying strength of the current upleg that pushed this pair to the highest level since September 14, 2022. AUDJPY is now hovering just above the 96.47 level with the bears trying to find an appropriate area to set up their defence.
In the meantime, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) has risen to the highest level since mid-April, signaling an aggressive trending market. Any signs of stabilization at this high level could be seen as an indication of rally exhaustion. Similarly, the stochastic oscillator is scraping the top of its overbought (OB) territory, supporting the higher high seen in AUDJPY.
If the bulls remain confident, they would try to keep this pair above the January 23, 2007 high of 96.47. If successful, they could then plot their path towards the September 13, 2022 high of 98.50 and register a new 2023 high.
On the other hand, the bears are desperately looking to put a stop to the current upleg and are expecting the first red candlestick. They would love a push below the 96.47 level and then gradually reduce their losses by engineering a correction towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August 20, 2021 – September 13, 2022 downtrend at 93.63.
To sum up, AUDJPY bulls continue to control the market with the technical picture on their side. The first red candlestick could reinvigorate the bears as they attempt to limit their losses.
