AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6457 extended higher last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.6817 resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, break of 0.6640 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6457 low again.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.7156 is still in favor to continue as long as 0.6817 resistance holds. Prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6801) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Break of 0.6457 will target 0.6169 key support (2022 low). Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6817 will indicate that fall from 0.7156 has completed in a three-wave corrective structure. Rise from 0.6169 would then be ready to resume through 0.7156.
In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.
