AUD/USD rebounded strongly after initial dip to 0.6457 last week. Initial bias is now mildly on the upside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6659). Sustained break there will target 0.6817 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish. Firm break of 0.6457 will resume the fall from 0.7156.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6811) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Current development suggests that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Retest of 0.6169 (2022 low) should be seen next. Firm break there will confirm down trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.6817 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.
. Sustained break there will target 0.6817 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish. Firm break of 0.6457 will resume the fall from 0.7156.){kind=link}