EUR/AUD’s late decline last week indicates that recovery from 1.6134 has completed at 1.6513 already. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 1.6134 first. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 1.6785, and target 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862. On the upside, above 1.6296 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, a medium term is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as corrective whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828.
In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5254 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.
