AUD/USD – 0.7878
Original strategy:
Sold at 0.7875, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7935
Position: – Short at 0.7875
Target: – 0.7700
Stop:- 0.7935
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 0.7875, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7935
Position: – Short at 0.7875
Target: – 0.7700
Stop:- 0.7935
Friday’s late rise suggests the rebound from last week’s low of 0.7733 is still in progress and near term upside risk remains for marginal gain, however, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited and bring retreat later, below 0.7800 would bring test of 0.7770-75, break there would signal top is formed, then retest of said support at 0.7733 would follow, below there would confirm recent fall from 0.8125 top has resumed for weakness to 0.7700-10 and later towards 0.7660-65.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.7875. Above previous support at 0.7908 (now resistance) would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 0.7950 but resistance at 0.7986 should remain intact and bring another decline later.
On the 4-hour chart, recent upmove from 0.7329 is unfolding as an impulsive rise with wave 3 as well as smaller degree wave (iii) extending, only minor wave v of (iii) has ended at 0.8125, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.8200, then towards 0.8300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8400 and the final wave 5 should falter below 0.8500, bring correction later.
