The dollar’s bears accelerated after US inflation surprised lower in March, boosting risk appetite and pushing the greenback to one-week low.
Fresh weakness (the dollar was down nearly 0.7% since data release) is pressuring pivotal support at 101.07 (Apr 5 low), ahead of key support at 100.66 (2023 low of Feb 2), loss of which would confirm an end of correction (100.66/105.46) and signal continuation of larger downtrend from 114.72 (2022 peak, posted on Sep 28).
Daily technical studies are in full bearish configuration and contribute to negative outlook, although fresh bears may face increased headwinds, as expectations for Fed’s 0.25% hike in May are high, after report showed that underlying inflation remains elevated that requires further action from the US central bank.
Fading concerns from the recent banking crisis also ease pressure on the Fed and give policymakers more room to focus on its main task – pushing inflation to the central bank’s 2% target.
Res: 101.53; 101.88; 102.22; 102.46
Sup: 101.07; 100.66; 100.00; 99.30
