AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7156 continued last week and accelerated to as low as 1.6716. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Immediate focus is on 0.6721 support this week. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication. Next target is 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. On the upside, break of 0.6854 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back has completed, and turn bias back to the upside.
In the bigger picture, focus is now on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.
In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7179) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.
