AUD/USD’s corrective fall from 0.7156 resumed last week by breaking 0.6854. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6736, which is close to 0.6721 key structural support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6935 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.7028 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 0.8006 (2021 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.6169 (2022 low). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.7304. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.8006. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6721 support holds.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.8006 was merely a correction to the rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7196) will raise the chance of up trend resumption through 0.8006 at a later stage.
