While EUR/AUD dropped notably last week, downside is contained well above 1.5254/71 support zone. Initial bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.5254/71 will carry larger bearish implication and resume the fall from 1.5976. On the upside, above 1.5650 will resume the rebound to 1.5749 resistance.
In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.
In the longer term picture, focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.5595). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal, and at least bring further rally to 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389. However, rejection by 55 month EMA will suggest that down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress for another low below 1.4281.
