Market movers today
In the US, GDP figures for Q4 2022 are on the agenda today, where we look for growth of 2.8% q/q AR. It’s worth noting though, that the relatively high figure largely reflects fairly strong October activity and the continuing positive contribution from net exports, while December data and most leading indicators suggest that private consumption growth will clearly slow down in Q1 23.
In Sweden, NIER’s January confidence survey should give important signals of the economy, while the December trade balance appears unlikely to buck the previous 2022 trend with increasingly bigger deficits.
The 60 second overview
ECB: ECB’s Nagel said she would not be surprised if interest rates rose further after March and thus made final hawkish comments to the market before the silent period begins today before next week’s ECB meeting.
Commodities: Industrial metal prices have risen more than 8% this year. The reopening of Chinese economy and sign the global manufacturing cycle has turned encourages the market. In addition, the weaker dollar supports higher prices.
Canada: Bank of Canada hiked its key policy rate 25bp to 4.5% yesterday. The move was expected by the market, which was surprised by the central bank’s decision to signal its plan to keep interest rates on hold and assess impact on the economy from higher interest rates.
FI: Rates markets were a tale of two stories yesterday, which in the end left European core rates unchanged on the day. Spreads widened somewhat to the periphery in a steepening move yesterday amid peripheral bonds underperforming as Spain revised its 10y bond supply higher to EUR13bn. The bond sell-off extended through the BoC’s decision to hike 25bp yesterday. They expect to hold the rates while they assess the impact. ECB policy peak repriced slightly lower earlier on the day to 3.40% as ECB enters silent period today.
FX: The CEE currencies continue to do well while NOK, NZD and CAD all took a setback in yesterday’s session. EUR/USD moved above 1.09 while EUR/GBP has fallen back to the 0.88 mark. EUR/SEK remains just north of 11.10 while EUR/NOK has moved back above 10.80.
Credit: On Wednesday, credit markets were in risk-off mode along with equities, likely weighing the prospects of a weaker than expected corporate earnings season and outlook for 2023. Itrax main widened 1.5bp to close at 80.5bp and Itrax Xover widened 6.0bp to close at 422.4bp. Despite the soft risk-asset sentiment, primary markets were well functioning with TDC Net (BB issuer rating) printing a 7 year EUR benchmark SLB at MS+285bp. Books were more than four times oversubscribed and the deal printed 35bp tighter than the IPT of MS+320bp.
