USD/CHF’s decline from 1.0146 resumed last week and dipped to 0.9325. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9545 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9355 from 0.9545 at 0.9056. Break of 0.9545 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9690) holds.
In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is extending and it’s probably in another medium term down leg. Downside will likely be contained by 0.8756 support in case of deeper fall. Overall, range trading should continue until further development.
