EUR/CHF rose further to as high as 0.9953 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 0.9798 support to bring rebound. Break of 0.9953 will resume the rise from 0.9407 to 100% projection of 0.9407 to 0.9798 from 0.9641 at 1.0032.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9407. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9641 support holds, even as a corrective rebound. Next target 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072. Reaction from there, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0128) will reveal whether the trend is reversing.
In the long term picture, capped well below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). In case of resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033.
