Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 12 Dec 2016
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 1 Nov 2016
• Trend bias: Up
Despite falling to 85.85 last week, as aussie found support there again and has rebounded, suggesting further consolidation above this level would be seen an recovery to 87.45-50 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 87.75 and price should falter below resistance at 88.15, bring retreat later. A break above said resistance at 88.15 would signal the erratic rise from 72.50 low has resumed for retracement of early downtrend to 89.00,, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 90.00, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 86.45-50 and price should stay well above said support at 85.85 and bring another bounce later. Only a break of said support at 85.85 would signal another leg of decline from 88.15 is underway for further fall to 85.50 and possibly towards support at 85.20, a drop below this level would provide confirmation that top has been made, bring retracement of recent upmove to 85.00, then towards 84.50-55 but support at 83.75 should remain intact and bring rebound later.
Recommendation: Would stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, aussie has remained confined within near term narrow range, suggesting further sideways trading would be seen and upside bias remains for recent corrective upmove from 72.50 low to resume after consolidation, break of 88.15 resistance would confirm this view and bring retracement of early downtrend to 88.50 and then 89.00-10 but reckon upside would be limited to psychological resistance at 90.00 and previous resistance at 90.70 should remain intact, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
On the downside, although initial pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 86.60) cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to support at 85.85 and bring another rise. A weekly close below 85.85 would defer and bring weakness to 85.00-10, however, reckon downside would be limited to 84.10-15 and price should stay above 83.75 support. Only below indicated support at 83.75 would suggest a temporary top has been formed at 88.15 and bring test of previous support at 83.20, break there would add credence to this view, then retracement of recent rise would take place, bring further fall to 82.50 and possibly towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 82.18) which is likely to hold on first testing.
