Focus turns to employment data from US and Canada today. US non-farm payroll report is expected to show 265k growth in September. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings is expected to rise 0.3% mom in September.
Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing employment dropped from 54.2 to 48.7, back into contraction region. But ISM services employment rose from 50.2 to 53.0. ADP private employment grew a solid 208k, up from prior month’s 185k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped notably from 246k to 207.
Overall, the headline print and unemployment rate are unlikely to deviate much from expectations. The surprise factor is probably in wage growth.
Meanwhile, from Canada, employment is expected to rebound and grow 22.5k in September, with unemployment rate unchanged at 5.4%.
USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.3832 might have completed at 1.3501, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2952 to 1.3832. An upside breakout looks ready after the above mentioned event risks are cleared. Nevertheless, even in case of another fall to extend the corrective pattern, downside should be contained by 1.3501.
