Natural gas futures (October 2022 delivery) have drifted lower again after their recent advance failed to cross above the 9.210 mark. Even though the latest downward spike seems to have encountered significant support at the lower Bollinger band, the near-term technical picture is constantly deteriorating.
The momentum indicators also reflect that bearish forces have gained the upper hand. Specifically, the stochastic oscillator is descending in the oversold territory, while the MACD histogram has dived below both zero and its red signal line.
In the negative scenario, further declines could meet support at the 7.000 psychological mark. Should that floor collapse, the bears could aim for 6.450 before the July low of 5.310 appears on the radar. A break below the latter may open the door for the 4.280 hurdle.
Alternatively, if buyers attempt to push the price higher, the recent support of 7.750 might provide immediate resistance. Violating this region, the price could ascend towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 8.320. Even higher, the recent peak of 9.210 could prove to be a hard ceiling for the price to break through.
All in all, natural gas futures appear unable to reverse their recent downfall as negative momentum is constantly strengthening, but the commodity retains a bullish medium-term outlook. For that to alter, the price needs to dip below the 5.310 floor.
