EUR/AUD rebounded notably last week but lost momentum after hitting 1.4738. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with bearish outlook. On the downside, decisive break of 1.4318 low will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.4804 resistance will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise back to 1.5396 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5656) holds.
