Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
• Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/CHF – 1.1450
Although the single currency rose to as high as 1.1624 late last week, the subsequent retreat suggests a temporary top is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of previous support at 1.1345 but break there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent rise to the upper Kumo (now at 1.1316), then towards previous support at 1.1259 which is likely to hold on first testing.
On the upside, whilst recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1485) cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1516) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Above 1.1590-95 would bring retest of said last week’s high at 1.1624 but only break there would abort and revive bullishness, then recent upmove shall extend gain towards 1.1695-00 (61.8% projection of 1.0833-1.1538 measuring from 1.1260), however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1770-80 and reckon 1.1800-10 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
Recommendation: Exit long entered at 1.1475 and sell at 1.1520 for 1.1320 with stop above 1.1620.
On the weekly chart, although euro rose briefly to 1.1624 late last week, the single currency opened lower this week and has retreated, a black candlestick looks set to be formed this week, suggesting a temporary top has possibly been formed at 1.1624, hence consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.1390-00 but break of support at 1.1345 is needed to add credence to this view, bring subsequent fall to 1.1259 support, break there would provide confirmation, bring retracement of recent rise towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1140) which is likely to hold from here.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.1515-20 and price should falter below this week’s high at 1.1591, bring another retreat later. Only break of said last week’s high at 1.1624 would signal the major rise from 0.8426 low has once again resumed and extend headway to 1.1695-00 (61.8% projection of 1.0833-1.1538 measuring from 1.1260), then towards 1.1760-70 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1840-50 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.
