Some volatility was seen in USD/CAD last week but outlook is unchanged. Corrective decline from 1.3222 could have completed with three waves down to 1.2726. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3062 will resume the rally from 1.2726 to retest 1.3222 high next. However, break of 1.2893 minor support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2726 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.
