STOCKS
Some corrective dip is expected in most of the indices except Dax, which has some more room on the upside before pausing.
Dow (22340.71,+0.25%) could remain stable near current levels or move down towards 22200-22100 in the near term. While the index remains below 22600, bearishness may remain intact with a maximum downside of 22000.
Dax (12657.41, +0.41%) could be headed towards 12800 eventually from where a sharp rejection is possible back towards 12600-12500 levels.
Nikkei (20323.81, +0.28%) looks weak on the weekly candles and could possibly come off towards 20100-20000 in the upcoming sessions. Near to medium term looks bearish. But at the same time if Dollar Yen continues to rise, the fall in Nikkei could be limited and the index could trade sideways for sometime.
Shanghai (3338.20, -0.21%) is trading quiet. No major movement expected just now but there is scope of falling towards 3320 in the near term before again bouncing back towards 3350 and higher.
Initial downside target for Nifty (9735.75, -1.38%) would be 9680/85 levels which could give a pause for some sessions, but in case the index breaks below 9680, it could head towards 9600-9500 in a few sessions. Bears look strong just now and could be dominant in the near term.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1282.95) is trading just above important support levels of 1280/90. On a break below 1280, the index could be pushed to 1275-1260 levels in a few sessions. Else if 1280 holds, the price can move back to 1300 and higher. Dollar Index (93.52) has started to rise and could test 94.00-94.50 in the next 2-3 sessions. If that happens, Gold could be headed towards 1260 soon.
Silver (16.76) could be following the footsteps of Gold. While Gold falls, Silver too can weaken towards 16.50 or even lower in the enar term.
Brent (57.65) and WTI (51.98) are trading at lower levels. WTI looks bearish in the longer term charts while Brent could test support just below current levels and indicates a rise in the coming sessions if that holds. Else both the crude prices can come down in the near term.
Copper (2.9255) is stable between 2.95-2.90 levels for the last few sessions and the price seems to be consolidating sideways. Some more movement in this region is possible in the coming days before a sharp move comes in. Range trade could be expected for now between the narrow 2.95-2.90 region.
FOREX
As expected, the Euro (1.1739) did indeed come down to our target region of 1.1750-10 (low being 1.1716) and the Dollar Index (93.51) trades higher coming into our target zone of 93.50-94.00.
Expect a range of 1.1700-70 on the Euro today, while the Dollar Index could rise a bit more towards 94.00.
Dollar-Yen (112.89) saw a high of 113.26 yesterday and see 113.15 again. Need to see if it closes above 112.95 or not, for there is an important trendline Resistance at that level. A Close above 112.94 could take the market up to 115.00 as well. Let us see.
The Euro-Yen (132.43) is consolidating between 132-133 for now, but has chances of a falling towards 131. If that happens, it could pull Dollar-Yen down with it.
The Pound (1.3385) has broken below the mentioned support at 1.3430-00 and may thus have chances of falling towards 1.3315-3265 next week. Immediate Support available near current levels for the day. Rallies may be sold into.
The Aussie (0.7821) too has lost further ground and may end up testing 0.7750, as suggested yesterday.
Dollar-Yuan (6.6499) has met our target of 6.65 and might take a bit of rest now. Dollar-Rupee (64.71) saw a high of 64.75 yesterday, the outer end of our 64.50-75 Resistance region. Allow for a spike to 64.80-85 today before the market exhausts itself and comes down.
INTEREST RATES
Sharp rise in US yields, with the US 5Yr (1.91%), 10Yr (2.31%) and 30Yr (2.87%) all breaking above near-term resistances. The 30Yr may target 3.00% while the 10Yr may move up towards 2.44% at least. The 5yr may have fresh Resistance near current levels.
The US yield Curve is steepening a bit now, with the 10-5 (0.40%) and 30-10 (0.56%) bouncing well from Supports over the last few days. Further steepening possible in the near term.
Due to the surge in US yields, German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.85%) has come down again from -1.75%, abetting the weakness in the Euro.
