NZDUSD has been silent since Monday’s negligible pickup, which put the market in the green territory on a weekly basis, trading flat at 0.6280 ahead of the US CPI inflation early on Wednesday.
The pair is currently trying to build a floor around the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6274 following the bounce on the 20-day SMA and the lower boundary of the short-term bullish channel on Monday, but the technical oscillators are barely promoting any meaningful rebound at the moment. In particular, the RSI has been diminishing towards its 50 neutral mark, while the MACD has been muted near its zero and signal lines, both mirroring a neutral short-term bias instead.
Perhaps, a close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downleg at 0.6317 could provoke the much-needed bullish power. If that proves to be the case, the price could fly towards the channel’s upper limit, which currently coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.6410. Not far above, the 78.6% Fibonacci of 0.6464 and the 0.6500 psychological mark could next come into consideration ahead of the 0.6574 high.
On the downside, a decisive step below 0.6256, where the 20-day SMA, the channel’s lower trendline, and the 38.2% Fibonacci are aligned, could initially pause somewhere between 0.6200 and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.6180. If that base cracks, the sell-off could exacerbate towards the two-year low of 0.6059.
In brief, although NZDUSD is currently declaring a neutral status, upside movements remain possible as long as the 0.6256 area provides a foundation.
