EUR/USD
Friday’s session was quite volatile for the EUR/USD, and in the early hours of today, the trend took a downward turn. There was a brief struggle between traders around the session open in Europe, but in the end the bears prevailed and the currency pair continued to plummet. The bottom for the day and the week was 1.0365, where the pair managed to find support and close the last day of the week at levels of around 1.0430. Today is Independence Day in the U.S. and volatility is expected to remain low as it is a public holiday. Euro data on today’s macroeconomic calendar will show the German trade balance (6:00 GMT), as well as manufacturing inflation levels (9:00 GMT), but this Friday all eyes will be on the U.S. labour force data. For now, the 1.0360 level is once more defending itself, but whether this is the last bottom for the EUR/USD will depend on what data we will get on the last day of this week and how the market will respond to it.
USD/JPY
After failing to find support at around 135.50 and reach a new high, the correction deepened, and on Friday, the pair managed to fall back to around 134.65. At the time of writing, the level at 135.43 is acting as the first major resistance, which has to be overcome in order for the rally to continue. .There is no yen or dollar data on the macroeconomic calendar today, and so once again all eyes will be on the NFP data on Friday this week. If the dollar comes out on top again, then the previous high of 136.98 can be easily breached, but if we instead see wavering sentiment, then the currency pair could deepen its correction.
GBP/USD
Friday’s session was extremely volatile for the sterling as we saw sharp movements of around 200 pips in both directions. It all started with a strong decline that managed to bring the currency pair to levels below 1.2000, but not for long as the bulls attacked these levels shortly after and we saw a recovery of the decline, with the session ending near 1.2100. Whether this upward move is enough to prompt traders to continue buying will depend on the strength of the dollar. Support from U.S. banks is lacking today as the nation celebrates its Independence Day, but on Tuesday we can expect more information from the macroeconomic calendar, which could define where the pair is headed in the long term. The Cable will also be influenced by the U.S. labour data to come out this Friday at 12:30 GMT.
EUGERMANY40
Volatility remained elevated on Friday and we saw big swings in both directions. The session started with a decline in the early hours of the day. However, as the German index approached levels at around 12740, it managed to find support and rise as the European exchanges opened. Movements in the U.S. stock market also managed to help the index continue its rally and end the day near 12900. This key level has already been playing the role of support several times in a row, but whether it will switch roles will to some extent depend on the data on the German trade balance scheduled for today (06:00 GMT). For now, the odds for the downtrend to deepen are high.
US30
In the early hours of Friday, we saw the blue-chip index head towards the key levels of 30450. There it found support and managed to score a nearly $800 gain and close the day at around 31000. However, today is Independence Day in the U.S. and the major players in the U.S. stock market are missing. All U.S. indices will therefore be trading on reduced hours today and will end the session at 15:00 GMT. The direction in the index is expected to be defined later this week, and especially on Friday after the U.S. NFP and labour data at 12:30 GMT is released. A drop in the dollar may help the indices to continue their growth, but if we see the opposite scenario, then a deepening of last week’s corrections is not excluded.
