Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 31 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 2 Aug 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/USD – 1.1910
Despite staging another rebound to 1.2034 last week, the subsequent sharp retreat formed a black candlestick on the daily chart, suggesting recent upmove is not ready to resume yet, hence further consolidation below recent high at 1.2093 would take place and another retreat to 1.1861 support cannot be ruled out, however, euro needs to penetrate previous support at 1.1838 to confirm a temporary top has been made at 1.2093 earlier this month, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1800, then towards 1.1730-40 which is likely to limit downside and price should stay above support at 1.1662.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.1950-60 and bring another retreat. Above said resistance at 1.2034 (last week’s high) would revive bullishness, bring retest of 1.2093 but break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend subsequent rise towards dynamic resistance at 1.2165-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) and later towards 1.2200-10 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2250-60 and reckon 1.2300-10 would hold from here.
Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, as euro met resistance at 1.2034 last week and has retreated, suggesting further consolidation below recent high at 1.2093 would take place and test of 1.1861 support cannot be ruled out, however, a drop below previous support at 1.1838 is needed to suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring further fall to 1.1730-35, having said that, only break of previous support at 1.1662 would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1545-50, then towards 1.1500 but price should stay well above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1332).
On the upside, above 1.2000-05 would bring test of 1.2034 but break of latter level is needed to signal upmove has resumed for retest of 1.2093, above there would extend recent upmove from 1.0340 low to 1.2160-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) but loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.2220-30 and reckon 1.2300-10 would hold from here, price should falter well below 1.2390-00, bring another retreat later.
