GBP/JPY – 151.60
Original strategy:
Sold at 151.00, stopped at 151.05
Position: – Short at 151.00
Target: –
Stop: – 151.05
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
Although sterling resumed recent upmove yesterday as the pair broke above resistance at 151.59 and recent rally may extend gain to 152.50-60, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 153.00-10 and reckon 153.50-60 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 151.00-05 would bring weakness towards support at 150.45-50 but only break of support at 150.10-15 would signal a temporary top is formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 150.00, then 149.50 but reckon 148.90-00 would hold form here.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.

