AUD/USD – 0.7957
New strategy :
Sell at 0.8040, Target: 0.7840, Stop: 0.8100
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Although aussie rose briefly to 0.8103, the pair met renewed selling interest there and has dropped sharply (our original strategy to sell at 0.8080 turned out to be accurate and timely), retaining our view that further consolidation below recent high at 0.8125 (this month’s high) would take place and mild downside bias remains for weakness to 0.7900, however, break of support at 0.8967-71 is needed to confirm temporary top has been formed there, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.7800 first.
In view of this, we are looking to sell aussie again on recovery as 0.8040-50 should limit upside. Above said resistance at 0.8103 would abort and risk retest of 0.8125 but break of latter level is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 0.8150-60, then towards 0.8200 later.
On the 4-hour chart, recent upmove from 0.7329 is unfolding as an impulsive rise with wave 3 as well as smaller degree wave (iii) extending, only minor wave v of (iii) has ended at 0.8125, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.8200, then towards 0.8300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8400 and the final wave 5 should falter below 0.8500, bring correction probably next week.
