AUD/USD – 0.8040
Original strategy:
Sell at 0.8080, Target: 0.7900, Stop: 0.8140
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Despite falling to 0.7940, as aussie found good support there and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting near term upside risk remains for gain to 0.8080-90, however, reckon upside would be limited and resistance at 0.8125 (this month’s high) would hold, bring further consolidation. Only break of this level would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove to 0.8150-60, then towards 0.8190-00 later this week.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 0.7985-90 would bring another test of said support at 0.7940 but only break there would signal top has been formed at 0.8125, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.7920-25 and later 0.7890-00 but support at 0.7867-71 should remain intact.
On the 4-hour chart, recent upmove from 0.7329 is unfolding as an impulsive rise with wave 3 as well as smaller degree wave (iii) extending, only minor wave v of (iii) has ended at 0.8125, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.8200, then towards 0.8300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8400 and the final wave 5 should falter below 0.8500, bring correction probably next week.
