AUDUSD is confronting the mid-Bollinger band at 0.7466 after unearthing fresh positive traction off the rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which appears to have rescued the minor twelve-week uptrend that evolved from the 0.6963-0.6994 support base that stretches back to July 2020. While the 200-day SMA proposes a more neutral trajectory, the rising 50- and 100-day SMAs are endorsing the upward trend in the pair.
Currently, the short-term oscillators are suggesting that recent negative momentum in the pair has yet to dominate. The MACD, which is in the positive region and beneath its red trigger line, is strengthening a tad north of the zero threshold, while the positively charged stochastic oscillator is also promoting additional upward moves in the pair. That said, the RSI has nudged into the bullish territory but is struggling to gain more positive ground.
To the upside, prompt resistance could originate from the mid-Bollinger band at 0.7466 and the nearby 0.7493 high. Overrunning these obstacles, the bulls may then aim for a critical region of resistance involving the upper Bollinger band at 0.7577 and the 0.7589-0.7645 barricade overhead. Should sturdy bullish forces navigate beyond these deterrents too and overshoot the nine-and-a-half-month spike of 0.7661, the 0.7775-0.7813 mid-May until mid-June area of highs could come under fire.
Alternatively, if bullish pressures fade around the mid-Bollinger band, initial downside constraints could transpire between the 50-day SMA at 0.7364 and the 0.7342 trough. If this critical zone, which includes the lower Bollinger band and a potential supportive trendline pulled from the 0.6967 low, fails to uphold the positive trend, sellers may then face a support section linking the 200- and 100-day SMAs at 0.7294 and 0.7265. If the pair dives past the longer-term 200- and 100-day SMAs, it could test the March 15 trough of 0.7164 before sinking towards the vicinity of the 0.7094 and the 0.7051 lows.
Summarizing, AUDUSD is sustaining a minor 12-week uptrend, which may endure should the price remain north of the SMAs and the 0.7342 trough. A successful close this time above the 0.7589-0.7645 border could reinforce upside momentum. Yet, a drop in the price underneath the 0.6963-0.6994 base could trigger worries about negative tendencies regaining a lead.
