STOCKS
Dow Jones has come down but the view remains bullish towards 37000, while above 36000. Dax has room to test 37000 on the upside before we see a rejection from there. Nikkei can fall down towards 28000-27500. Shanghai can test 3700 now. Nifty needs to break above 17400 to be bullish towards 17800 else a fall towards 17000 can be seen. Sensex, also has to rise above 59000 to test 60000.
Dow (36338.30, -59.78, -0.16%) has come down. The view is still bullish to see a test of 37000 before we see a top in place. Further rise above 37000, if seen, can take the index up towards 38000.
DAX (15884.86, +32.61, +0.21%) has risen again. The view is bullish to see a test of 16200 while above 15800.
Nikkei (28791.71, −115.17 , 0.40%) has come down today. The index has failed to sustain above 29000 and has come down. A fall back towards 28000-27500 is possible now.
Shanghai (3639.78, +20.59 , 0.57%) has bounced back from the support zone at 3600. The view is bullish to see a rise towards 3650-3700 in the near term.
Nifty (17354.05,+150.10, -0.87%) rose sharply on Friday. The index can face rejection at 17400 level. A sustained break above 17400 if seen on the flip side can take the index up towards 17800, else a fall towards 17000 can be seen.
Sensex (58253.82, +459.50 , 0.80%) also rose sharply but has resistance at 59000. A strong break above 59000 is needed for the view to be bullish towards 60000. Failure to break above 59000 can drag the index back towards 58000.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices have dipped a bit but may re-test immediate resistances before falling sharply. Gold has risen above 1820 and can head to 1850 or even higher while the upmove sustains. Silver can rise to 24.50/70 on a break above 23.50. Copper can rise to 4.60/65 on a break above 4.50.
Brent (78.08) and WTI (75.56) both have dipped a bit but can re-test immediate resistances near 81 and 78-79 respectively which if hold may produce a deeper fall in the coming sessions. Watch price action near mentioned resistances.
Gold (1827.80) has risen well breaking above 1820. The upmove needs to sustain to take it higher towards 1850 and further up towards 1870-1880 in the medium term. Watch price action on a rise to 1850.
Silver (23.20) has been rising over the past 2-sessions and a break above 23.50 can take it higher towards 24.50-24.70 on the upside which would be the next important resistance. View is bullish on a break above 23.5.
Copper (4.4515) rose last week to close above 4.40 but while below 4.50, we may expect a possible range of 4.50-4.30 to hold for the near term. Only a sustained break above 4.50 can take it higher towards 4.60/65 in the medium term.
FOREX
Dollar Index has broken below 96 and may test 95.50-95.00 on the downside before again bouncing to higher levels. Euro can rise to 1.14-1.1450 on a sustained trade above 1.1350. EURJPY can test 131-132 if continues to rise from current levels. Aussie and Pound has limited scope on the upside for the near term. USDJPY has risen well and a break above 115.50 is needed to take it higher towards 116-117-118 in the longer run. USDCNY has fallen sharply and can test 6.35 before bouncing from there. USDINR can test 74.50/74.80 while above 74.
Dollar Index (95.877) broke below 96 on Friday but is holding above 95.50. a possible test of crucial support near 95 is possible before the index rises higher towards 96-97 again in the medium to long term. View is bearish towards 95 in the next few sessions.
Euro (1.1346) has fallen from 1.1386 seen on Friday. The rate had risen above 1.1350 but fell back as it could not sustain at higher levels. We may see a bounce from immediate support at 1.1320 which if seen can take the Euro higher again towards 1.14-1.1450 on the upside. Watch price action near 1.1320 on a fall from current levels.
EURJPY (130.754) trades above 130 and if it sustains to move up further, a test of 131-132 can be possible soon.
Aussie (0.7252) has dipped today but has scope to rise to 0.73-0.7325 before falling off from there. Overall view is bearish while below 0.7350.
Pound (1.3503) had also risen well on Friday but has come off today. A test of 1.36 is possible in the near term before seeing a deeper correction from there.
Dollar-Yen (115.26) has risen above 115 and could be soon headed towards 116-117-118 on the upside on a sustained break above 115.50 which is an immediate resistance above current levels.
USDCNY (6.3521) fell sharply to test 6.3374 on the downside before bouncing slightly higher today. While below 6.37, view is bearish towards 6.35. Any break below 6.35 if seen can be indicative of a sustained downfall in the pair.
USDINR (74.3350) bounced back sharply from 74.09 on Friday and seems to sustain to rise further towards 74.60/80 on the upside before facing any rejection. We may expect a dip from anywhere between 74.50/60-74.80 region.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields manage to sustain higher. A break above the immediate resistances can take them towards the upper end of their respective range. The German yields have moved up sharply and are keeping our bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI is stuck in a narrow range while the 5Yr GoI looks vulnerable for a fall in the near-term.
The US 2Yr (0.73%), 5Yr (1.26%), 10Yr (1.51%) and the 30Yr (1.90%) Treasury yields manage to sustain higher. View remains the same. A break above 1.53% (10Yr) and 1.93% (30Yr) can take the yields up towards 1.6%-1.65% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr) in the coming days. We retain our view of seeing a broad sideways range of 1. 3%-1.65% on the 10Yr and 1. 7%-2% on the 30Yr for some time.
The German 2Yr (-0.65%), 5Yr (-0.47%), 10Yr (-0.19%) and 30Yr (0.19%) have moved up sharply across tenors. Our bullish view of seeing a rise to -0.1%/-0.05% on the 10Yr and 0.25%-0.30% on the 30Yr remains intact.
The Indian 10Yr (6.4537%) GoI has been stuck between 6.44% and 6.5% over the last few days. A breakout on either side of this range will decide whether the yield can go up to 6.54%-6.56% or fall to 6.4% in the near-term.
The 5Yr (5.7905%) GoI has declined sharply on Friday and looks vulnerable for a fall to 5.74% in the near-term.
DATA TODAY
5:00 10:30 IN Manf PMI
…Kshitij Expn 57.4 …Previous-57.6
8:30 14:00 CH PMI
…Kshitij Expn 64.3 …Expected 61.2 …Previous 62.5
9:00 14:30 EU PMI
…Previous -58.4
Data released yesterday:-
No Major data released on Friday.
