STOCKS
Most indices have risen but may face rejection from immediate resistances and fall back unless a sustained rise is seen in the near term. Dow, Dax and Nikkei needs to rise above 36000, 15900 and 29500 in order to turn bullish for the medium term. Shanghai has opened near 3625 but needs to hold higher to head towards 3675-3700 else it may fall back towards 3600 or lower. Nifty and Sensex are stable and needs to break above 17000 and 58000 to turn bullish else there can be scope for a fresh fall soon.
Dow (35492.70, +560.54, +1.60%) has risen again and needs to break above 36000 to turn bullish. Till then, the view remains bearish to see a test of 34500/34000.
DAX (15447.44, +207.77, +1.36%) has risen sharply. A strong break above 15500 can take the index up towards 15900 in the coming weeks.
Nikkei (28548.80, +31.21, +0.11%) has risen today and is heading towards 29000-29500. A strong break above 29500 can take the index up towards 30000 in the medium term else a fall back towards 28500 cannot be negated.
Shanghai (3624.31, -0.81, -0.030%) opened above the resistance at 3625. If the index manages to sustain above the 3625 resistance then a rise towards 3650 and even 3700 is possible else we may expect a pull back from current levels itself.
Nifty (16770.85, +156.65, +0.94%) went up to test 16936 in the first half but came down sharply in the second half yesterday. The view is bearish to see a dip towards 16200 while below 16800. A strong break above 17000 is needed for the view to be bullish again.
Sensex (56319.01, +497, +0.89%) rose slightly in a corrective bounce as we had mentioned yesterday. Resistances show a possible fall to 55000/54000 in the coming sessions.
COMMODITIES
Crude prices have risen but heads towards near term resistance levels from where rejection is possible. Brent can rise to 77/78 while above 74 whereas WTI can test 75 before reversing from there. Gold and Silver can trade within 1760-1820 and 22-23 for the near term. Copper can range within 4.25/20-4.45/50 over this week and the next before breaking on either side to give more directional clarity.
Brent (74.41) and WTI (71.60) have both risen as expected. Brent has risen above 74 and while it holds higher there can be some chances of testing 77/78 before a reversal is seen. We do not look for a break above 80 within the current move. WTI on the other hand has also risen but is within our expected 71-72 region. If 72 fails to hold as a decent resistance immediately, a rise to 75 can be seen before reversing from there
Gold (1789.40) may hold within 1760-1820 region for now, falling to the lower end of the range before bouncing back to higher levels. Unless a break on either side is seen, it would be difficult to project further direction from here.
Silver (22.56) is likely to hold within 22-23 region for now.
Copper (4.3275) has dipped from 4.3520 the interim resistance mentioned yesterday. If 4.35 manages to hold for now, Copper can see a short corrective dip to 4.25/20 before again rising back towards 4.35/45/50 on the upside. Else we may expect the price to break above 4.35 by this week end to move u towards 4.45/50 soon.
FOREX
Not much of volatility seen in currencies as most pairs remain in a sideways range. Dollar Index may hold within 97-96 while Euro can trade within 1.1350-1.1230/00. Aussie and Pound look ranged too while EURJPY can fall from 129 towards 127.50. USDJPY has risen well but can face rejection from 114.50 to head back towards 113. USDINR needs to remain below 75.80 to eventually fall towards 75.20 and lower else we may expect a slight bounce over the next 2-sessions before resuming the fall.
Dollar Index (96.519) can fall to 96 while 97 holds as an immediate resistance. Narrow range of 96-97 may hold for now.
Euro (1.1275) continues to hold within 1.1350-1.1230/00 region for he near term.
EURJPY (128.65) seems to be holding below 129 and may fall within the broad 127.50-129.50 range which may hold for the near term unless a break on either side is seen.
Aussie (0.7136) is likely to hold within the broad range of 0.72-0.71.
Pound (1.3257) is ranged within 1.3375/80-1.3150 region and may hold for the next few sessions. A bounce from 1.3150 may take it to the higher end of the mentioned range.
Dollar-Yen (114.07) has risen as expected within our mentioned range of 114.50-113.35. We continue to look at this range to hold unless a sustained break on either side is seen.
USDCNY (6.3723) has dipped slightly but while below 6.3830, we continue to look for a fall to 6.36. View is bearish for the near term.
{USDINR (75.6050) bounced back from 75.40 to close higher at 75.60 yesterday. It would be important to see if the pair rises to test 75.80/90 on the upside today or sustains the fall towards 75.20 on the downside. Overall view is bearish while below 76.20-75.80.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields have risen further sharply. A break above their immediate resistances can take them to the upper end of their respective ranges. The German yields have risen back sharply and are threatening to prove our bearish view wrong. A further rise above the immediate resistances can take them higher and negate our view of seeing a fall. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have also risen sharply contrary to our expectation. The resistances are broken and if that sustains a further rise is possible from here.
The US 2Yr (0.66%), 5Yr (1.22%) and the 10Yr (1.47%) Treasury yields have moved up sharply while the 30Yr (1.87%) has inched up 1 bps from levels seen in early Asian trades yesterday. A rise past 1.5% on the 10Yr and 1.93% on the 30Yr will pave way for a test of the upper end of their respective range of 1.3%-1.65% and 1.7%-2% in the coming days.
The German 2Yr (-0.72%), 5Yr (-0.57%), 10Yr (-0.31%) and 30Yr (0.06%) have risen back sharply yesterday. Key resistance on the 10Yr is at -0.25% which we expect to hold and keep the bearish view intact of seeing -0.45% / -0.5% on the downside intact. The 30Yr has risen just above the key resistance level of 0.05% and needs to see if it can sustain above it and negate the bearish view of seeing a fall to -0.1% / -0.2%.
The Indian 10Yr (6.4691%) has risen past 6.45% contrary to our expectation. A further rise from here can see 6.5%-6.55% on the upside and then a pull-back to.6.5% or 6.45% is possible.
The 5Yr (5.7949%) GoI has risen above the resistance at 5.78% and has room to test 5.82% on the upside.
