NZDUSD is following the declining lower Bollinger band and is confronting the October 13 inside swing low of 0.6910, after a one-month price drop from the 0.7200 vicinity, which steered beneath the simple moving averages (SMAs). The longer-term 100- and 200-day SMAs are reflecting the absence of a trend, while the dipping 50-day SMA, is mirroring the slight lead sellers have managed to secure.
Despite the commanding sideways market in the pair, the short-term oscillators are skewed to the downside. The MACD, in the negative zone, is dropping deeper below its red trigger line, while the RSI is sliding in the bearish region. The stochastic lines are in oversold territory and the %K line has yet to confirm that negative momentum is waning.
If the current price trajectory prevails, instant downside friction could stem from the 0.6910 barrier and the bordering lower Bollinger band. Navigating down, a zone of support may manifest itself among the 0.6875 obstacle and the 0.6857 low, the former being the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 0.6510 until 0.7464. If selling interest intensifies, the bears could then aim for the nine-month trough of 0.6803. Should this key trough fail to halt the descent, steeper losses may then guide the price towards the 0.6718-0.6734 support band.
However, if buyers retake the reins and push higher, preliminary upside constraints could evolve at the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6987 before a resistance belt emerges between the 100- and 50-day SMAs at 0.7022 and 0.7038 respectively. Overstepping this, the mid-Bollinger band at 0.7065, the adjacent 200-day SMA at 0.7080 and the 0.7100 handle may prove tough obstacles to surpass. Piloting higher though, the price could then seek out the 0.7176 mark and the neighbouring 0.7200-0.7239 resistance border.
Summarizing, NZDUSD is currently sustaining a bearish bearing, but the short-to-medium term picture remains neutral. In order to replenish buoyancy in the pair, the price would need to manoeuvre above the 0.7200-0.7239 ceiling, while a drop below the 0.6803 trough could strengthen negative moves.
