German IFO Registers A Lower Reading For The 4th Straight Month

• German IFO Survey registers its 4th straight lower reading as supply chain issues intensify.
• BOJ and ECB meet this week. Dealers noted that market gauges of projected inflation were increasingly at odds with the ECB’s forward guidance.

Asia

• China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO) injected CNY200B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY100B prior; Net inject CNY190B.
• China to launch pilot property tax schemes in some regions; the specific regions and other details would be determined by the State Council; The pilot schemes were expected to last for 5 years.
• Japan ruling LDP party said to have lost special election in Shizuoka [comes ahead of the Oct 31st general elections].

Europe

• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min) noted that people should have confidence in the Bank of England to manage inflation. Inflation and interest rates would feed into his thinking ahead of budget. Most of the increase in inflation is down to global supply chains/energy prices (Reminder: on Wednesday, Oct 27th, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak Sunak to deliver annual budget).
• France Regional Maritime Fisheries Committee Chairman Lepretre: Progress on fishing licenses was too timid and taking too long; would hold more talks with UK on Monday (Oct 25th).
• UK PM Office noted that talks with the EU about Northern Ireland Protocol had been constructive but substantial differences still remain, we’re still far apart on the big issues, especially governance.
• Turkey President Erdogan said to have ordered 10 foreign envoys be ousted (including envoys from US, France and Germany).
• S&P revised Italy sovereign outlook to Positive from Stable; Affirmed BBB sovereign ratings.
• S&P affirmed UK sovereign rating at AA; outlook stable.

Americas

• Treasury Sec Yellen stated that did not think Fed was about to lose control of inflation; Inflation would remain high until next year; Expected improvement in inflation rate in H2 2022.
• House Speaker Pelosi stated that around 90% of the spending Bill had been agreed; expecting final agreement this week.
• Senator Manchin (D-WV) said to be ‘agreeable’ to wealth tax for President Biden plan.

Energy

• Saudi Oil Min Abdulaziz stated that OPEC + should maintain its cautious approach to managing global crude supplies given the threat to demand still posed by the pandemic, producers should not take the rise in prices for granted.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.06% at 472.14, FTSE +0.54% at 7,243.10, DAX +0.18% at 15,570.95, CAC-40 -0.08% at 6,728.52, IBEX-35 +0.11% at 8,916.50, FTSE MIB +0.54% at 26,715.00, SMI -0.11% at 12,042.56, S&P 500 Futures +0.14%].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly higher across the board but slipped a bet to trade mixed later in the session; sectors leading to the upside include materials and consumer discretionary; while laggard sectors include telecom and technology; financials sector supported by better than expected results from HSBC, buyback; Unicredt ends talks with Italian government to rescue Monte dei Paschi, reportedly BPM expressing interest; Solutions 30 acquires Mono; Sabadell rejects offer for UK unit; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include Michelin, Kimberly-Clark and facebook.

Equities

• Industrials: James Fisher & Sons [FSJ.UK] -32% (trading update; outlook cut).
• Financials: HSBC [HSBA.UK] +1% (earnings), Plus500 [PLUS.UK] +1% (trading update), Banca Monte Paschi de Siena [BMPS.IT] -4%, Unicredit [UCG.IT] -2% (UniCredit and Italy’s Ministry of Economy and Finance confirm decision to cease the negotiations on potential acquisition of Monte dei Paschi), Banco Sabadell [SAB.ES] +3% (press speculation on divestment).
• Healthcare: Erytech [ERYP.FR] -45% (trial data), Allergy Therapeutics [AGY.UK] +20% (trial results).
• Technology: Darktrace [DARK.UK] -7% (analyst action).

Speakers

• ECB’s de Cos (Spain) noted that – Supply chain issues causing problems. Rise in raw material prices negatively affected the pace of recovery. Likely to keep observing relatively high inflation rates in the coming months.
• German IFO Economists noted that supply chain issues remain a factor for the softer Survey readings and the situation seen getting worse in the months ahead. German economy looking at an uncomfortable autumn. Saw Q4 GDP growth around 0.5%.

Currencies/Fixed income

• USD continued to consolidate recent gains as markets focused on the prospect of interest rate hikes and tightening outside of the US. Dealers noted that yield spreads had not moved decisively in favor of the greenback in recent sessions as seen a similar rise in yields in other G10 economies.
• EUR/USD at 1.1665 area with focus on Thursday’s ECB meeting. Dealers note that market gauges of projected inflation were increasingly at odds with the ECB’s forward guidance.
• TRY currency continued to hit fresh record lows in the aftermath of last weeks 200bps rate cut by CBRT. The latest weakness attributed to President Erdogan’s threat against various envoys.
• Italian government bonds were outperforming its regional peers,. The 10-year BTP yields was lower after S&P Global Ratings affirmed Italy’s BBB rating and raised the outlook to positive from stable.

Economic data

• (FI) Finland Sept PPI M/M: 2.3% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 19.1% v 15.5% prior.
• (CZ) Czech Oct Consumer Confidence Index: -8.5 v -6.5 prior; Business Confidence: 6.7 v 7.4 prior; Composite Confidence (Consumer & Business Confidence): 3.6 v 4.6 prior.
• (MY) Malaysia mid-Oct Foreign Reserves: $115.6B v $115.2B prior.
• (TR) Turkey Oct Real Sector Confidence (seasonally adj): 111.3 v 113.3 prior; Real Sector Confidence NSA (unadj): 109.6 v 113.4 prior.
• (TR) Turkey Oct Capacity Utilization: 78.0% v 78.1% prior.
• (TW) Taiwan Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 12.2% v 11.8%e.
• (DE) Germany Oct IFO Business Climate Survey: 97.7 v 98.0e (4th straight lower reading); Current Assessment Survey: 100.1 v 99.4e; Expectations Survey: 95.4 v 96.6e.
• (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 715.3B v 714.3B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 642.4B v 640.2B prior.
• (PL) Poland Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.7%e.
• (TW) Taiwan Sept M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.4% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 15.0% v 15.4% prior.
• (IL) Israel Sept Unemployment Rate:5.2% v 5.0% prior; Unemployment Rate (including Covid effect): 7.9% v 8.0% prior.

Fixed income issuance

• (DE) Germany sold €2.03B vs. €4.0B indicated in 12-month Bubills; Avg Yield: -0.6526% v -0.6677% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.88x v 1.29x prior.
• (EU) European Union sold €2.497B vs. €2.0-2.5B indicated range in 0.00% Oct 2028 NextGeneration (INGEU) bond; Avg Yield: -0.117%; bid-to-cover: 1.58x.

Looking ahead

• (RO) Romania Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 17.8% prior.
• (RO) Romania to sell 4.15% 2028 Bonds.
• (IL) Israel to sell combined ILS1.3B in 2024, 2026, 2030 and 2031 bonds (5 tranches).
• 06:30 (EU) European Union to sell €2.0-2.5B in 0.00% Oct 2028 NGEU bond.
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 75.3 prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Aug IGAE Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 7.1% prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Unemployment Rate NSA (unadj): 4.2%e v 4.3% prior; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adj): No est v 4.1% prior.
• 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).
• 08:30 (US) Sept Chicago Fed National Activity Index: 0.20e v 0.29 prior.
• 08:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 4.383Te v 4.335T prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 4.2% prior.
• 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.4-6.6B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
• Sells €B vs. €3.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.732% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.21x prior.
• Sells €B vs. €2.0B indicated in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.667% prior; bid-to-cover: x v 2.55x prior.
• Sells €B vs. €1.6B indicated in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.629% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.93x prior.
• 09:00 (BE) Belgium Oct Business Confidence: 2.2e v 4.0 prior.
• 09:00 (UK) BOE’s Tenreyro.
• 09:45 (UK) (UK) BOE to buy £1.147B in APF Gilt purchase operation (3-7 years).
• 10:30 (US) Oct Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 6.2e v 4.6 prior.
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.
• 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-year notes.
• 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.
• 18:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 107.0 prior.
• 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 6.0% prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept PPI Services Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.0% prior.
• 21:10 (JP) BOJ Outright Bond Purchase Operation 3~5 Years; 5~10 Years maturities.
• 22:30 (KR) South Korea to sell KRW450B in 20-year Bonds.
• 23:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell THB50B in 3-month bills.
• 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month 6-months and 12-month Bills.