EUR/CHF dropped to as low as 1.0678 last week and the break of 1.0694 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.1149. But as a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first. On the downside, break of 1.0678 will turn bias back to the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0655. Sustained break there will pave the way towards 100% projection at 1.0481. On the upside, break of 1.0750 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound first.
In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 week EMA maintains medium term bearishness. Fall from 1.1149 (2021 high) is currently seen as the second leg of the patter from 1.0505 (2020 low) first. Hence, in case of deeper fall, we’d look for strong support from 1.0505 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 1.0505 will resume the long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Also, medium term outlook will now be neutral at best as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1037) maintains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223.
