GBP/JPY – 141.80
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
As sterling has recovered again after holding above support at 141.40, retaining our view that further consolidation above this month’s low at 141.20 would be seen and corrective bounce to 142.20-25 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 142.50 and price should falter below last week’s high of 143.00, bring another retreat later.
In view of this, below said support at 141.40 would bring test of said last week’s low at 141.20 but break there is needed to revive bearishness and extend the retreat from 143.00 to 141.00 and possibly towards 140.45-50, however, price should stay above another previous support at 140.05. Only a drop below 140.05 support would signal the rebound from 139.35 has ended and risk further fall to 139.70-75, then retest of this recent low at 139;35.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.
