EUR/CHF dropped further to 1.0715 last week but recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0802 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0715 will resume larger fall from 1.1149 to retest 1.0505 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.0802 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound first.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1149 resistance holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1068) retains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223.
