The Turkish lira hit new record low against dollar on Wednesday (8.7536) as Turkey’s President Erdogan continues to push the central bank to lower interest rates that sparked fresh sales of lira as investors fear that inflation may surpass the interest rate that would cause more problems to the economy which struggles to emerge from the crisis caused by Covid-19 pandemic.
Turkey’s inflation data are due tomorrow (May f/c 17.25% from 17.14% in Apr), with high risk that consumer prices could rise more on surging oil prices and falling lira.
The CBRT is left with very little space for maneuvering, as further rate hike on rising inflation is quite unlikely due to strong pressure from President Erdogan to start lowering rates.
Firm break of former record USDTRY high at 8.5816 would add to negative signals for lira and expose Fibo projections at 8.9796 and 9.2258 (123.6% and 138.2% respectively).
Res: 8.5816; 8.7536; 8.8127; 9.0000.
Sup: 8.5000; 8.4613; 8.4304; 8.3676.
