Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 31 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 2 Aug 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/USD – 1.1932
The single currency finally resumed recent upmove last Friday as the pair surged above recent high at 1.1910, adding credence to our bullish view that recent upmove from 1.0340 low has resumed and upside bias remains for this move to bring headway to psychological level at 1.2000, then 1.2050-60, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2100 and reckon dynamic resistance at 1.2165-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) would hold from here, price should falter below 1.2200-10, bring retreat later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1870-80 cannot be ruled out, previous resistance at 1.1828 (now support) should contain downside and bring another rise later. Below the Tenkan-Sen (Now at 1.1811) would risk test of support at 1.1773 (Friday’s low) but only a daily close below there would abort and suggest a temporary top is formed instead, risk weakness to 1.0740 support first. Once this level is penetrated, this would provide confirmation, bring further fall to 1.0710 and later towards strong support at 1.1662 which is likely to remain intact.
Recommendation: Buy at 1.1870 for 1.2050 with stop below 1.1770.
On the weekly chart, last week’s rally formed a white candlestick and the breach of previous resistance at 1.1910 confirms recent upmove from 1.0340 low has resumed, adding credence to our bullishness for this move to extend gain to 1.2000, then 1.2050-60, however, weakening of near term upward momentum would prevent sharp move beyond 1.2160-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) and reckon 1.2220-30 would hold, price should falter below 1.2300-10, bring another retreat later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.1870-70 and previous minor resistance at 1.0828 should hold, bring such a rise. Below last week’s low at 1.1731 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk test of support at 1.1662, only a drop below this level would add credence to this view, bring test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1636), break there would bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1550-60 and later towards 1.1435, having said that ,downside should be limited to 1.1370 and support at 1.1312 should remain intact, bring rebound later.
