AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7815 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral first. We’re favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 has completed with three waves down to 0.7530. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.7676 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.7815 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to 0.7484 resistance, and then retesting 0.8006 high. However, break of 0.7676 will dampen our bullish view and bring retest of 0.7530 low support.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.
In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 of 1.1079 to 0.5506 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.
